Forecasting the Weather- A Tough Nut to Crack At Times

The atmospheric condition of a place at any particular given time is its weather, and the application of technology and science to predict this probable atmospheric condition is known as weather forecasting. It is since the 19th century that humans are attempting to forecast the weather by collecting quantitative data about the current atmospheric state at a particular geographical area. Several individuals have taken this up as a profession of which Jim Byrne KCOY Weatherman is a mention worthy name.

His years of experience have made him work as the chief meteorologist at the KCOY CBS-12, as well as a freelancer weekend meteorologist at the NBC Bay area. Jim Byrne KCOY Weatherman is popularly known as the “Weather Guy” at the Weather Channel where he hosts a show of his own. Professionals of weather analysis like him use scientific understanding of the atmospheric processes to project the change of atmosphere.

Initially the forecasting procedure was primarily based on changes in the barometric pressure, the condition of the sky and the present weather conditions. But now, technology has joined hands with the scientific processes, and weather forecasting is now completely dependent on the computer based analysis of the atmospheric conditions. However, this does not mean that humans are totally exempted from the process; it is the humans who are required to pick the best possible forecast model so that the forecast can be based on it.

The chaotic nature of the atmosphere often causes the forecasting to become inaccurate, and with the increase in the time difference between when the prediction was made and the current time, the inaccuracy increases. Nevertheless, this error is minimized by the use of ensembles and model consensus that pick the most likely result.

Forecasting the weather plays quite an important role in the regular life of individuals, they help in protecting life and property. Agriculture is greatly benefitted by these forecasts as temperature and precipitation form the basis of these forecasts. The utility companies use these forecasts to estimate the demand over the forthcoming days. On a daily basis too, these weather forecasts help individuals in deciding their activities of the day.

One of the simplest methods of forecasting is known as Persistence; it involves the prediction of tomorrow’s condition by relying on today’s weather conditions. This method is helpful when the weather is steady, but when the weather fluctuates, which it mostly does, this method cannot be relied upon.

Using a barometer to determine the weather based on the change of pressure of the atmosphere has been an age old practice. Along with this the condition of the sky is a very vital determining factor of the weather forecast, especially in the mountainous regions. The condition of the clouds is what is mostly considered in this method.

One of the more novel methods is the ‘nowcasting’; this is prediction of weather within the next six hours. Individual rain showers and thunderstorms are easily predictable by this method.  Predicting the weather has always helped the human race a great deal and hence everyone should be really grateful to all the meteorologists and the weather department on the whole.

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